Methodology · How We Measure
Backtested segment selection, live grading against real results, and a published track record · wins and losses alike.
Each of our named Playbook segments qualified on a multi-season backtest (3–5 seasons, depending on the sport's available data) with positive cumulative ROI. That's a qualification gate, not a forecast. A backtested-profitable pattern can, and frequently does, go negative on any given live month or quarter. We publish the live result regardless.
Every prediction the engine fires is logged at qualification time, frozen at its first-seen side and odds. The grader matches each pick to the actual result the next morning. Live ROI on /track-record highlights our strongest recent run of graded picks, labeled with the exact window and pick count it covers; the full pick-by-pick history is published beneath it. Sample sizes are small; expect heavy variance. We publish wins AND losses. That's the entire point.
Grading conventions
- Frozen-line policy. A qualified pick is a placed wager at its first-seen side and odds. Later line moves never rewrite it.
- Next-morning settlement. Results are fetched from official sources and matched to picks automatically; ungraded picks are surfaced, never silently dropped.
- Tamper-evident record. Every graded event is chained into an append-only, hash-linked ledger. The current ledger root is public in the site footer and verifiable at any time.
Live coverage today · 14 leagues
Recommended wagers with unit sizing, plus full game projections. UFC picks use the Anvil / Iron Lock / Vice Grip tier system.
Full game analysis and projected outcomes. No recommended wagers for these leagues while our evaluation continues.
This list updates automatically as leagues are added or promoted to full pick coverage.
Champion / Challenger A/B framework
Every production model has a shadow challenger that proposes a refinement. The public /challengers page shows how each challenger is performing vs its champion, in real time, with full promotion-gate breakdown. This is how we calibrate · visibly.
See live challenger comparison →Sample size matters. Live ROI over a short recent window is noisy. Single-pick swings can move the headline 1–2 pp. Backtest pedigree is our pre-publication filter; live ROI is the audit trail. Read both. Sports betting outcomes are random in the short run; even a profitable strategy will spend significant time underwater.
No guarantees. We do not guarantee outcomes. Past outcomes are not indicative of future outcomes.
For information only.We're not a licensed financial advisor and we don't accept wagers. Picks are statistical analysis intended for entertainment + research. See /disclaimer and /terms for full legal.